Dear all,

Enclosed please find the results of calculation of tsunami generation and propagation on 30-sec bathymetry within the area 19° – 51° N, 135° – 175° E for 4 hours of propagation time.

Calculation was made for the following source model basically representing the fault plane 1 in Harvard CMT solution:

Epicenter position (center of the low edge of the fault) Lat=38.0N Long=141.5E
L (length)=500km
W (width)=180km
DE (dip-agle)=10°
LA (slip-angle)=88°
TE (strike angle) =23°
Do (displacement) =12m
Seismic moment Mo= 5.4Е29 dinxcm

Fig.1 shows the glow-chart of radiated energy.

Fig.2 shows the histogram of maximum (red color) and minimum (blue color) wave amplitude at 210 coastal points along with time of arrival of maximum positive (red line) and maximum negative (blue line) with time scale shown on the right.

Fig.3 shows location of coastal points and source contour (as of 10cm vertical displacement isolines).

Fig.4 shows the computed wave form near Fukushima I nuclear station. The first maximum (7.2m) arrived in 51 min after the quake. As Wikipedia site tolds, the emergency diesels abruptly stopped in 55 min after the quake.

Comparison of observed (retrieved from PTWC list) and computed amplitudes of the first wave for some selected locations:

LOCATION       LAT     LON       OBS     COMP
HANASAKI      43.3N   145.6E    1.83M   1.72M
WAKE            19.3N   166.6E    0.39M   0.39M
DART 21419    44.5N   155.7E    0.40M   0.37M
DART 21413    30.5N   152.1E    0.76M   0.85M
DART 21401    42.6N   152.6E    0.67M   0.37M
DART 21418    38.7N   148.7E    1.08M   0.62M

We believed that for the first approximation of a source, the comparison with observed data is not bad. What is needed for further calibration are the run-up data from the nearest coastal locations. We would very much appreciate any quantitative data on this from our Japanese colleagues.

Regards, V.Gusiakov, L.Chubarov, S.Beisel